In recent weeks, U.S. markets have experienced a dramatic downturn. February's record-breaking highs for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and tech-heavy NASDAQ plummeted by more than 20%. The sharp decline was triggered by Donald Trump’s aggressive protectionist trade policies, especially new tariffs, which quickly showed up in both Americans’ 401(k)s and their social media feeds. As of April 9, 2025, Trump has shrunk most of the tariff obligations 10% (the Chinese tariffs remain at a staggering 145% as of April 10, 2025). Market volatility remains sustained with key volatility indicators matching where they were during the midst of the early COVID-19 Pandemic or the 2008 Financial crisis.
We’ll walk through how Infegy’s social listening tools can help you track macroeconomic shocks using just a single word: “tariff.” With that word alone, we’ll trace the development of the ongoing crisis, highlight key moments of escalation, and explore how real people (both general and Trump supporters) are reacting in real time. This kind of insight can help anyone, from investors to policymakers to brand managers, better understand and anticipate the impact of major economic events.
Figure 1: Quick Search of the word "tariff"
We’ve used the Infegy Social Dataset to follow major market disruptions before, such as the collapse of FTX in 2022 and the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. But the recent tariff crisis stands apart due to its sheer scale and how clearly it played out across social conversations over time.
By analyzing social post volume (our most critical trend indicator), and layering in AI-generated summaries, we can break the event down into key narrative phases. These phases show how a trade conflict that started with campaign trail comments evolved into a full-scale global economic crisis involving China, Canada, and the European Union.
Crises rarely emerge without warning. To understand the roots of this trade crisis, we have to look back, not just days or weeks, but months.
Donald Trump has long spoken out against what he sees as unfair trade practices, dating back to his early years in New York. His 2024 presidential campaign also included many references to tariffs. But those early mentions didn’t gain much traction on social media. As seen below, while there were spikes in mentions of “tariff” from January to September 2024, they were overshadowed by bigger campaign events, including an assassination attempt and President Biden dropping out of the race.
Figure 2: Daily post volume mentioning "tariff" (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
Tariff talk gained more attention during and immediately after Trump’s election in November, with mentions peaking at around 95,000 posts. But the buzz didn’t last; by December, post volume had dropped by 50%. The national conversation had shifted to Trump’s transition team and controversial immigration policies.
Figure 3: Daily Truth Social post volume mentioning “tariff” (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
Despite Trump talking repeatedly about tariffs and protectionism throughout the campaign, supporter-dominated Truth Social didn’t appear to talk about them either. We chose to isolate Truth Social as a proxy for Trump supporters because it’s the platform most closely associated with his base. Figure 3 shows a generally similar post volume trajectory, but with much smaller spikes pertaining to the individual shocks. This suggests that Truth Social users support Trump, but don’t follow daily market gyrations as closely as general social media.
That quiet wouldn’t last. In February, tariffs became the central issue, dominating both financial headlines and social media feeds.
To explain how this event escalated, we’ll use a feature built into Infegy’s AI summary tool: an interactive timeline with labeled narrative events that highlight what’s driving post volume.
Figure 4: Normalized Post Volume with AI-Derived Events of Importance highlighted (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
Trends and post volume give us a high-level view of attention, but they don’t always explain why a topic is surging. AI-based narratives help fix that by labeling what specific moments or storylines are pushing the conversation, and the markets, forward.
Let’s look at the three major phases of the tariff crisis: tensions with Mexico, then Canada, and finally, a global escalation.
The first signs of a serious trade conflict emerged in late January, when Trump announced tariffs targeting Mexico. Trump has long had a strained relationship with Mexico, and this move was tied to claims about fentanyl and national security. He used the drug crisis as a justification for invoking emergency powers to impose tariffs.
Figure 5: AI-Derived Narrative Showing Greater Conflicts Around US-Mexico Trade Relations (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
Despite the dramatic headlines, this phase didn’t dominate the conversation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum quickly moved to negotiate, calming investor fears. As a result, posts related to Mexico made up only about 6% of total “tariff” conversation at this stage.
While February was relatively quiet, and even saw the S&P 500 reach new highs, March brought renewed turbulence. This time, Trump escalated trade tensions with Canada.
Unlike with Mexico, Canadian consumers pushed back strongly. Social posts surged with calls to boycott American products like Starbucks, Kraft, and Campbell’s Soup.
Figure 6: AI-Derived Narrative Showing Greater Conflicts Around US-Canada Trade Relations (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
Canadian-related posts had over twice the volume of Mexican ones, and they carried a much lower sentiment score. Even Trump’s supporters seemed confused about targeting Canada, one of the U.S.’s most stable allies.
The crisis reached a boiling point in early April. On “Liberation Day,” Trump announced the largest set of tariffs in a century, targeting nearly every major trading partner. That announcement sent markets into freefall.
Some countries, like Vietnam and Israel, offered to negotiate. Others, like China, responded with force. On April 4, China announced its own retaliatory tariffs, signaling the beginning of what could become a prolonged and damaging trade war.
Figure 7: AI-Derived Narrative Showing The Catalyst For Two Record-Breaking Days of Losses in US Stocks (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
The U.S. economy depends heavily on consumer spending. Unsurprisingly, Americans responded strongly once it became clear these tariffs would affect them directly.
Figure 8: AI-Derived Narrative Showing What Social Media Users Thought Would Be The Impact To The Typical US Consumers (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
Consumer-focused posts had the lowest positivity of any narrative group, just 10%. The overall sentiment was clear: most informed consumers saw tariffs as a hidden tax that would drive up prices on everyday goods. As awareness grew, so did anxiety.
While general sentiment around tariffs has been largely negative, Truth Social users tell a different story. On topics like consumer prices, only 10% of general posts were positive, but 98% of Truth Social posts framed higher costs as a patriotic trade-off.
Figure 9: Contrasting General Social Sentiment With Truth Social Sentiment (January 1, 2024 through April 7, 2025); Infegy Social Dataset.
Even narratives like the global trade war (38% general positivity vs. 53% on Truth Social) and U.S.-Mexico tensions (35% vs. 44%) saw significantly more support among Trump’s base. The sentiment gap was sharpest on consumer impact, where most saw tariffs as a tax, while supporters viewed them as necessary to protect American jobs and sovereignty.
This crisis highlights why social listening datasets are so powerful. With a single keyword, you can follow not just when people started talking, but why. You can see shifts in public opinion before they show up in polls. You can watch a policy move from a fringe issue to a headline crisis. And you can learn how specific groups (consumers, investors, voters) are responding in real time.
Whether you’re a policymaker, a marketer, or a financial analyst, social data gives you the kind of ground-level insight that traditional media or official sources often miss until it's too late.