Pumpkin Spice Latte Trends

From Starbucks Icon to DIY Fall Favorite

In the world of seasonal beverages, few have made as lasting an impact as the Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). Once a hallmark of Starbucks' fall menu, the PSL has seen a shift in its cultural footprint over recent years. Consumer sentiment has begun to change as the coffee giant navigates brand challenges, including calls for boycotts over its stance on social and political issues. Using Infegy Starscape, we dive deep into the conversation, exploring how this beloved autumn drink has transitioned from a Starbucks staple to a popular DIY trend, reflecting broader consumer behavior shifts.

Growing Trend with Distinct Seasonality

Pumpkin Spice Lattes defy the typical seasonal spikes and drops observed in other products most associated with seasonality. Unlike most trends that peak and then taper off, PSLs maintain a relatively stable and growing presence each fall. Based on this year's growth, we expect elevated growth, but not necessarily as elevated as last year. This consistent demand, combined with year-over-year growth, highlights the enduring appeal of the product, which not only exemplifies a predictable seasonal trend but also showcases enormous consumer engagement and expansion. Sentiment for the product is consistently positive at around 70% positivity, with 17% neutral, making only 13.6% of the conversation negative. Understanding such trends is essential for marketers to capitalize on predictable demand while monitoring growth opportunities. To learn more about how to analyze food and beverage trends, check out this blog post from Infegy.

Figure 1: PSL Post Volume (September 2014 through September 2024), Infegy Social Dataset.

Figure 2: PSL Sentiment (September 2014 through September 2024), Infegy Social Dataset.

Move Away From Commercialization

When we analyzed the conversations around PSLs, we dove into positive and negative topics to get a better sense of the language people use. Unsurprisingly, some of the usual stereotypes popped up, like "white girl," "overrated," and "Uggs." But what stood out to us was Starbucks. Despite being the creator of the PSL craze, the brand surprisingly landed at the top of the negative topic list, with only 2.3% positivity. This finding caught us off guard, especially given how people typically view PSLs in such a positive light. Let's dive into that specific topic to see if we can better understand why Starbucks showed up as such a negative topic.

Figure 3: Negative PSL Topics (September 2014 through September 2024), Infegy Social Dataset.

Why So Much Starbucks Negativity?

From our previous research, it's clear that Starbucks has been under a lot of heat recently. Our Brand Risk Dashboard shows Starbucks as the number one brand at risk out of the thousands we track. It's been a regular fixture in our power ranking, holding a spot for the past 30 days without dropping out. Negative emotions like Disgust and Anger, along with the Injury theme, make up nearly 50% of the conversations surrounding the brand on social media. Let's look at these Starbucks-related topics to understand why the sentiment is so negative, even regarding their most beloved beverage.

Figure 4: Infegy Brand Risk Dashboard Power Ranking (September 23, 2024), Infegy Social Dataset.

Starbucks faces significant brand risks, as shown in our Brand Risk Dashboard. Conversations around the brand have taken a negative turn, with boycotts, revenue losses, and a growing shift towards independent coffee shops dominating the discussion. Starbucks' perceived association with Israel—deserved or not—has sparked a wave of criticism. On top of that, consumers are pushing back against rising prices in the wake of inflation.

Interestingly, our analysis subtly shows the pumpkin spice latte (PSL). While sentiment for the drink trends is more favorable than terms like "boycott," it still leans negative, indicating that the Starbucks brand name may dampen enthusiasm for the seasonal favorite.

Figure 5: Topics Associated With Starbucks (August 23, 2024 through September 23, 2024), Infegy Social Dataset.

A Pivot to DIY Recipes Highlighting Health

As we've pointed out, most conversations around PSLs are positive. While we just spent a fair amount of time exploring a negative aspect of the product, it's only part of the conversation.

We ran our AI summary and found that 27% of the conversation involved folks making their pumpkin spice lattes and posting the recipes on Instagram. We dove into Topics within that Narrative and found a paradox - Starbucks appears again, this time in a very positive light. However, it's important to remember that our Sentiment Analysis is context-dependent. In this case, people were talking about making PSLs on their own instead of going to Starbucks to buy them (note the appearance of words like "copycat, "better," and "home"). We also saw a focus on health - there was a fair amount of branded criticism where drinks from restaurants weren't considered healthy.  When doing sentiment analysis, it's essential to understand the underlying context of a particular analysis before jumping to a conclusion you might regret.

Figure 6: Positive PSL Topics (September 2014 through September 2024), Infegy Social Dataset.

Figure 7: PSL Site Distribution (September 2014 through September 2024), Infegy Social Dataset.

Takeaways for Your Brand

The Pumpkin Spice Latte's cultural footprint has evolved from a beloved Starbucks staple to a symbol of broader consumer trends, including a rise in DIY recipes and a focus on healthier alternatives. While Starbucks faces brand challenges, including negative sentiment tied to its association with political issues, the PSL itself remains broadly popular. However, the growing shift towards homemade versions of the drink underscores changing consumer preferences and a move away from commercialization. For brands, this trend highlights the importance of staying attuned to consumer sentiment and adapting to evolving tastes. By leveraging tools like Infegy Starscape, marketers can better understand these shifts and seize opportunities for growth in a dynamic market.