For those of you following American Idol this year, Adam Lambert has been the perceived obvious winner from the start of the Top 12. Not only did he receive constant praise and amazement from the judges, but week after week he sailed through with his over-the-top and powerhouse performances to reach the Final 2. His buzz corresponded quite well, as chatter around Adam Lambert has been dominating the other contestants for weeks.

But, before we declare Adam Lambert our next American Idol, let’s take a step back. Who’s he up against in the finale? Kris… something.. Kris Allen? Who’s that? This underdog came from getting absolutely zero American Idol air-time or hype prior to the live episodes to somehow sneaking by each week with solid, cool performances and becoming the unexpected final contender for the American Idol title. Does he really have a shot? Several weeks ago, I would’ve said “absolutely not.” Tonight, I’m not so sure. In fact, in my uncertainty, I’ve become certain that he has a real shot.

Take a look at this surprising analysis of mentions “voting for” either Adam or Kris.

Who do we predict as the winner? Honestly, based on our analysis up to this hour, it’s damn near impossible to tell. It is so close, it could go either way. But, let’s look at the sentiment for both.

Based on the sentiment results, Kris Allen is slightly ahead (74% positive to Adam’s 72% positive). But again, it’s very close. Given what we’re seeing in Social Radar and my opinion of the determined winner, I predict our American Idol for 2009 will be…

Kris Allen

Why did I choose Kris? Well, our analysis gives him a very slight advantage. And, maybe deep down I like rooting for the underdog. I also think that, although Adam Lambert is a brilliant singer, he just doesn’t bring enough mass appeal with his mostly “Hard Rock” related music-style. Kris has a much more alternative/pop mainstream appeal. But if he does win, our buzz suggests that it will be by a very small margin. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

Lambert is trending down, and Anoop is on the rise this week. Adam Lambert still led in overall posts thanks to lingering buzz from his last performance, but after this week’s performance Anoop has been generating the most chatter over the past few days.

Here are the overall rankings based on number of blog posts, news feeds, chat rooms, forums, social networks and Twitter posts throughout the past week:

1. Adam Lambert
2. Anoop Desai
3. Kris Allen
4. Danny Gokey
5. Matt Giraud
6. Lil Rounds
7. Allison Iraheta
8. Scott MacIntyre

Adam Lambert still leads the American Idol Top 9 in chatter by a large margin. Interestingly, Anoop has a commanding hold on 2nd place this week. The table below displays a ranking by web chatter — including blogs, news feeds, chat rooms, forums, social networks and Twitter posts throughout the week.

If Web chatter is any indication, Adam Lambert is running away with American Idol season 8. Paula Abdul’s early prediction to reach the finals has nearly twice as much chatter as any other contestant. Two weeks into the season, here’s how the Top 10 stack up: 

1. Adam Lambert
2. Lil Rounds
3. Anoop Desai
4. Danny Gokey
5. Matt Giraud
6. Scott MacIntyre
7. Megan Joy
8. Kris Allen
9. Michael Sarver
10. Allison Iraheta

This will be an interesting chart to monitor over the next 9 weeks. Will Allison be the next to go? Can Web chatter predict the American Idol winner?